Lets Try This Again…
Hello everyone! Welcome to the Miracle blog. With the second half kicking off tonight against Charlotte I thought this would be a good time to debut our blog. I think everyone is glad to finally have the first half of the season over with. The Miracle’s 28-42 record was their worst in over a decade, when they sported a 25-44 first half record in 1999. So what happened to the Miracle in the first half of 2010 after such a great 2009 season where the club won both the first and second halves of the season.
1) The Miracle were decimated by injuries. Losing starters Bruce Pugh, Bobby Lanigan, and Brad Tippett for over a month really hurt Fort Myers. Last season, not a single pitcher missed a start due to injury. They also lost some of their top position players Paul Kelly and Drew Thompson for most of the first half. The whole Minnesota Twins minor league system, as a whole, was killed by injuries which resulted in very little help to the Miracle. Just to give you an example of how bad this was, the Miracle made 54 roster moves in the first half — in 2009 they made 29 for the ENTIRE SEASON. Miracle trainer Larry Bennese, who has been with the club now for 12 years and has been in baseball for over 20, said this was “the most injuries he has ever had to deal with in his career.” I think that says it all…
2) Offensive production – The Miracle scored two runs or less in 27 of 70 first half games and three runs or less in a 39 of 70 games. They finished second to last in both team batting average (.240) and runs scored (243 or 3.5 per game). The 2009 Miracle hit .265 as a team and averaged 4.24 runs per game. But the majority of the offense from 2009 is now rightfully with Double-A New Britain.
Of players that spent the entire first half in the Florida State League, the top average went to Chris Herrmann who hit .224. The most home runs went to Nate Hanson at 3, and the most RBI’s to Deibinson Romero with just 23. The players that were expected to anchor the 2010 offense, Evan Bigley and Deibinson Romero, struggled in their roles in the middle of the lineup. Bigley hit just .222 with 0HR and 22RBI after hitting .280 with 5HR and 46 RBI in 2009. Romero, who was placed on the Twins’ 40-man roster for Spring Training last year, still has not progressed. He hit .221 with 2HR and 22 RBI in the first half, after hitting a disappointing .225 with 5HR and 56 RBI in 2009.
3) Inconsistent Pitching – For the majority of the first half the bullpen failed to hold onto many leads for the Miracle. It was most apparent down the stretch when Fort Myers lost four games in the final week in the ninth inning or later. The ‘pen sported a 5.89 ERA in April, had an improved 2.42 ERA in May, but shot back up to 5.18 in June.
The Fort Myers starting rotation had some great games (7 shutouts) but also put their offense in a deep holes early in games. The Miracle staff allowed a staggering 45 first inning and 45 second inning runs in 70 games. Combine that with the shaky offense, and it resulted in several losing slides.
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With all of that said, call me crazy and optimistic, but I think the Miracle have a legitimate cha
nce in the second half. Here’s why…
nce in the second half. Here’s why…
1) When the Miracle starting five is healthy, I think they have a chance to be one of the best rotations in the entire Florida State League. The key will be how Bobby Lanigan and Bruce Pugh return from injury. Lanigan was a first-half FSL All-Star even though he made just six starts. Pugh started out slow but when he was locked in, he was unhittable. His last start before injury showed glimpses of his capability. On the road in Bradenton, against the top offensive team he needed just over 70 pitches to toss a one-hit shutout through seven innings – striking out 10. If he didn’t start to feel pain in his elbow during that last inning of that start, he probably would have gone the distance.
Then there’s the ace of the staff – 21-year-old Australian Liam Hendriks. Hendriks flew under the radar in many scouting sources like the “2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook”, which ranks each organizations top 30 prospects. The right-hander didn’t even make the top 30. When you pick up a copy of the 2011 version, expect him to be in the top half of that list. Hendriks has been arguably the best pitcher in the entire Twins farm system. In his split time between Low-A Beloit and Fort Myers, Hendriks leads the Twins minor leaguers in ERA (1.38), strikeouts (83), WHIP (0.81), and Batting Average Against (.196). Oh, yea, and by the way he has not allowed an earned run in his last 19 2/3 innings with Fort Myers.
His reward? A spot in the 2010 MLB Futures Game in
Anaheim. He will be the first ever current Miracle to
participate in the event.
Rounding out the rotation is Dan Osterbrock and Santos Arias. Osterbrock started 0-4 with a 5.41 ERA in Fort Myers, but since then has allowed only 5 ER in his last five starts (31 innings – 1.45 ERA). Recently demoted RHP Santos Arias from AA should also be solid.
2) The schedule is must softer – here’s how the Miracle’s second half schedule breaks down with their record against first half opponents:
Charlotte – 9 games (4-5)
Palm Beach – 6 games (2-10)
Bradenton – 7 games (4-8)
St. Lucie – 12 games (3-3)
Jupiter – 12 games (4-2)
4 games versus Daytona, Lakeland, Clearwater, Tampa, Brevard, and Dunedin (combined 11-13)
With this schedule I feel like the Miracle will at the very least finish a few games above .500. They play the majority of their games against the 2 weakest FSL teams (St. Lucie and Jupiter) and their least amount of games against the two teams that gave them the most trouble (Bradenton and Palm Beach).
3) I would expect some offensive upgrades. The Miracle are expecting the arrival of Twins #1 prospect Aaron Hicks at some point in the second half (hopefully sooner rather than later), and they’ve already got top 10 prospect, Angel Morales, who I would expect to turn things around after a slow start in his first week with the team. It takes time for these guys to adjust levels.
SO — what must happen for the Miracle to contend for a second-half playoff spot…
1) Charlotte cannot win the second half. Even if Fort Myers has a great second half, if they finish second to Charlotte they will mostly likely be doomed by their first half record. If a team win’s both halves the playoff spot goes to the team with the next best OVERALL record. Fort Myers would have a hard time competing with that.
2) They must stay healthy
3) The bullpen and lineup need better production to support strong starting pitching.
4) Play better at Hammond Stadium (13-20 first half record at home).
— If those four things happen I think the Miracle have a shot at making some noise in the second half. At least Fort Myers has the hope of a second chance at this season….
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